LS results good but not great, INDIA still to close the gap as Jharkhand state polls loom

THOUGH they recorded an improvement from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, INDIA bloc parties in Jharkhand remained behind the NDA in terms of Assembly segments – a worrying sign for the coalition ahead of the state polls later this year. This is despite the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) making gains on account of sympathy vote over the arrest of its senior leader and former chief minister Hemant Soren.

The JMM, Congress and RJD are allies in Jharkhand, a partnership that predates the formation of INDIA.

Mapping the Lok Sabha results onto the state’s Assembly segments shows that the NDA partners, which include the BJP and All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) in the state, were ahead in 49 – giving them a clear majority in the House of 81. The BJP alone led in 46 Assembly segments, again ahead of the majority mark of 41.

The JMM led in 14 Assembly segments and the Congress in 15, putting the INDIA bloc’s total at 29. Independents led in two other Assembly segments and the BSP in one.

Even in the Lok Sabha elections, the Hemant Soren factor did not prove enough to counter the BJP-led NDA’s appeal in Jharkhand. With eight seats, the BJP led the pack, with the AJSU winning 1 seat. The two parties got, respectively, 44.6% and 2.62% of the votes.

In contrast, the JMM won three seats and the Congress two seats, with their vote shares at 14.6% and 19.9%, respectively. The RJD failed to win the only seat it contested.

The vote shares, however, come with the rider that while the BJP contested 13 Lok Sabha seats, the JMM fought five and Congress seven of the state’s total 14 seats.

Another factor that could give INDIA some hope is that the state may vote differently in the Assembly elections. In 2019, for example, the JMM-Congress-RJD