In Haryana LS seats, BJP, Congress in even split, but INDIA hits magic number ahead of Assembly polls

As the ruling BJP and the principal Opposition Congress begin preparations for the Haryana Assembly polls, slated for October this year, the Lok Sabha results for the state’s 10 seats show that the two rivals are neck-and-neck.

Voting data at the Assembly segment level shows that if the Haryana polls were held today, it would result in a hung House but the Opposition INDIA bloc would come out on top as an alliance.

After sweeping the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s tally fell to five seats this time with the Congress picking up the remaining five seats. In terms of votes, the BJP’s share fell from 58.21% in 2019 to 46.11% with the Congress rising from 28.51% to 43.67%.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), an INDIA bloc member, failed to win from the lone seat (Kurukshetra) it contested in alliance with the Congress as part of their seat-sharing agreement. The AAP however raised its vote share from 0.36% to 3.94% despite contesting just one seat as compared to three last time.

Among the regional parties, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and its breakaway faction led by Dushyant Chautala, Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), didn’t win any seats this time too with vote shares of 1.74% and 0.87%, respectively. In 2019, the parties had secured vote shares of 1.9% and 4.9%, respectively.

At the Assembly segment level – each Lok Sabha constituency contains several Assembly constituencies – the BJP won the most votes in 44 of Haryana’s total 90 Assembly seats. The Congress was not far behind at 42 with the AAP leading in the remaining four seats. The JJP and INLD did not lead in any Assembly segments.

If the Assembly polls are held today, the results of the recent Lok Sabha polls would indicate the BJP falling just short of the