In J-K Lok Sabha polls, INDIA bloc crossed majority mark in Assembly segments

Last December, the Supreme Court set September 30, 2024 as the deadline for holding the Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, which would mark its first in a decade.

The Assembly segment-wise results in J&K in the recent Lok Sabha elections show that if the Assembly polls were held in the Union Territory (UT) today, the National Conference (NC) would emerge as the single largest party and, with support from the INDIA bloc allies Congress and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), have just enough seats to form their coalition government in the 90-member House.

The former state has not had an Assembly election since 2014 and came under the central rule since June 2018, when the BJP withdrew its support from their Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP coalition government. In August 2019, Article 370, which granted special status to J&K, was abrogated, and the state split into two UTs, J&K and Ladakh.

The Lok Sabha polls in J&K’s five seats saw the BJP and NC each win two seats, with one seat going to an Independent, jailed leader Sheikh Abdul Rashid popularly known as Engineer Rashid.

The vote shares stood at 24.36% for the BJP, 22.3% for the NC, 19.38% for the Congress, and 8.48% for the PDP.

The Assembly segment-wise voting data shows that the NC and BJP’s performances would make them the frontrunners if the Assembly elections were held now. While neither party would win an outright majority, the NC would be in the lead having won the most votes in 34 Assembly segments, followed by the BJP in 29 segments. The Congress was the leading party in seven Assembly seats, the PDP in five seats, and the Sajjad Lone-led People’s Conference (PC) in one seat. Engineer Rashid, however, led in 14 segments.

The INDIA bloc, which comprises the Congress, NC and