What the Long Island special election tells us about the battle over the suburbs

The nation’s suburbs are moving toward Democrats. But not on Long Island.

Republicans have a three-year winning streak in the close-in suburbs east of New York City — places that rejected then-President Donald Trump in 2020 but have turned red amid concerns about crime and, more recently, immigration.

Next week’s special election to replace ousted Rep. George Santos will test whether they can maintain their recent stranglehold on those New York suburbs. Former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi is running against Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip. Both independent and partisan polling shows the race is tight.

For Democrats, a win would — among other things — suggest a way to overcome ongoing Republican attacks over crime and immigration, which they concede are a major problem for their party’s image.

“Voters in this particular district see headlines several times a week about migrants being bused into New York City,” said former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), who held the seat before retiring in 2016. “People on Long Island really do have the perception that migrants are flooding New York City, and the border isn’t under control.”

If Democrats are successful, it may be simply because they are building on nationwide trends among upscale suburban voters. New York’s 3rd Congressional District isn’t just suburban: It has some of the most affluent and educated voters in the country. It ranks 16th in median earnings, and 30th in the percentage of adults with college degrees.

That’s what’s made Republican wins there so confounding for Democrats, who hold nearly every other district with similar metrics on education and income.

New York’s 3rd District — roughly three-quarters of which is in suburban Nassau County with the other quarter in the