Steve Kornacki: The 4 key regions to watch in the Michigan primary

The presidential campaign is shifting to Michigan, where Republicans and Democrats are holding their primaries Tuesday.

Former President Donald Trump is aiming to keep his winning streak alive in the 2024 GOP nomination fight with Nikki Haley, with 16 GOP delegates up for grabs in Tuesday’s primary. The other 39 delegates will be doled out at a state party convention Saturday.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden faces opposition from critics of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war who are encouraging Michigan Democratic voters to cast their ballots for “uncommitted” as a form of protest.

If you’re planning to follow along Tuesday night as the results map lights up one county at a time, here are some key areas to keep an eye on.

The first three areas marked off here are especially significant for the Republican primary.

1. Dutch country

Western Michigan is home to the largest concentration of Dutch Americans in the country, and these five counties (Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Allegan and Kalamazoo) make up the heart of it.

For complex reasons dating back to a split in the Dutch Reformed Church and a large 19th-century migration from Holland, the heavy Dutch influence on this area has created a distinct political culture — one that is conservative and traditionally Republican, but also unusually averse to Trump. In the 2016 Michigan primary, Trump carried the state with 37% of the vote. But in these five counties combined, he managed a mere 23%, finishing second in two of them (Allegan and Muskegon) and third in three (Kalamazoo, Kent and Ottawa). This is especially striking given that, overall, Trump carried 72 of the state’s 83 counties.

For Haley, that makes running up the score in these counties — which together will account