Michigan primary: What to watch as 2024 campaign shifts to the first big swing state

Michigan's presidential primary on Tuesday will offer a serious test of President Joe Biden's ability to navigate dissent within the Democratic Party over his response to Israel's war with Hamas. The leading Republican in the White House race, former President Donald Trump, is looking for another primary win that would add to his sweep of the early-voting states and move him that much closer to becoming his party's nominee.

The Michigan contest is the final major race before the election calendar broadens dramatically on Super Tuesday, March 5. That's when more than a dozen states will hold elections with thousands of delegates at stake.

The results this Tuesday will be closely watched for any clues about where Michigan is trending before the November election. With a narrow win in 2016, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to carry the state since 1988, securing his path to the White House. Biden reclaimed the state for Democrats in 2020, contributing to his defeat of Trump.

Some things to watch heading into the Michigan primary:

Biden is facing minimal opposition from Democrats and his grip on the nomination is not in doubt. But primary voters in Michigan can pick "uncommitted," which could give some in his party the option of casting what is essentially a protest vote.

That could prove especially enticing in a state with the highest number and concentration of Arab Americans. Biden is facing intense pressure to press for a permanent cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war, to the point that a core group of elected officials has joined a campaign to promote backing "uncommitted" instead of the president on Tuesday.

The potential of an "uncommitted" win is highly unlikely. But if that option receives