Not India Shining or even INDIA shining moment, but BJP will feel the glare

Before Tuesday, the INDIA bloc kept talking about how the 2024 results would prove to be an ‘India Shining’ moment for the BJP, referring to how the Vajpayee government had been taken by surprise by the 2004 numbers after advancing general elections in the anticipation of a win.

While the Modi government projected a “370-plus” number for itself and “400 paar” for the NDA, it fell far short, with the BJP winning only 240 and the NDA 293. With the NDA likely to return to power, it is not exactly what the INDIA bloc predicted. But it is also not what the BJP expected.

So what happened in 2004?

The Atal Bihari Vajpayee had won the Kargil War and there were other reasons it felt upbeat about its chances: the GDP growth rate was 8.4% in the second quarter of 2003, Vajpayee’s popularity was high, India’s foreign reserves were swelling and the Opposition was crumbling (the Congress had lost the Assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2003).

On February 6, 2004, Vajpayee dissolved the Lok Sabha, six months before the end of term in September-October.

The BJP then ran an ‘India Shining’ campaign, including a pre-recorded telephonic message by Prime Minister Vajpayee himself — “Main Atal Bihari Vajpayee bol raha hoon…(This is Atal Bihari Vajpayee speaking)” — to a publicity blitz. At the time, it was similar in scale to the Modi-Amit Shah-led BJP’s wall-to-wall campaigns now, with similar catchy slogans like “Abki Baar, Modi Sarkar”.

After polling, held over four phases between April 20 and May 10, 2004, came the exit polls, which predicted on an average that the NDA would fall just short of the 272-majority mark but that the Opposition UPA would be limited to less than 200 seats.

Five exit polls estimated the NDA