Lok Sabha Elections: In 45 seats that had voted till 6th phase, big fall or rise in polling could be crucial

Of the 94 Lok Sabha constituencies till the sixth phase of voting where there was a rise or decline in polling by 50,000 votes, this could prove a decisive factor in at least half.

Of the 486 Lok Sabha seats that had voted by the sixth phase on May 25, in 45, the victory margin in 2019 was 50,000 votes.

Of these 486 seats, 14 are in Assam and 5 in J&K, where there are new boundaries compared to 2019 due to delimitation, and so have not been included in this analysis.

Out of the 94 seats which saw a substantial rise or drop in voting, in 38, votes in absolute numbers increased by more than 50,000 votes, while in four, votes fell by more than 50,000. In at least three other seats, the fall in voting was at least three times the victory margin of 2019.

Among the 38 seats where polling increased by 50,000 votes compared to 2019, the BJP had won 13 five years ago, the Congress eight, the YSRCP four, the BJD and TDP three each, and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) two, whereas one seat each was won by the Trinamool Congress, AIMIM, DMK, Shiv Sena and an Independent.

In these 38 seats, the Congress was runner-up in eight, the BJP in seven, the BJD in five, the TDP in four, the TRS and YSRCP in three each, the TMC and Shiv Sena in 2 each, and the AIADMK, JD(S), NCP (then united) and Samajwadi Party in one each.

One seat where the effect of the rise in the total number of votes – by 55,192 to be precise – is difficult to predict is the Tumkur seat of Karnataka, which the BJP had won in 2019 by 13,339 votes. The JD(S), which was in alliance with the Congress in 2019, is now a partner of the BJP.

Of the 38 seats where the absolute number of votes rose, the most increase was in Chevella in Telangana, where 3.58 lakh more voted in