BJP retains edge in overall victory margin, but Congress wins bigger in SC, ST seats

In the just-concluded elections to the 18th Lok Sabha, the incumbent BJP bagged 240 seats, which marked a sharp drop from its tally of 303 seats in the 2019 polls. In contrast, the principal Opposition Congress won 99 seats, nearly doubling its 2019 tally of 52 seats.

Both the BJP and the Congress improved their average victory margin in the 2024 polls as compared to it in 2019.

Overall, the BJP’s average winning margin is higher than that of the Congress in the current polls too. However, in the seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes (SCs) and the Scheduled Tribes (STs), the Congress has won with a bigger average margin than the BJP.

An analysis of the 2024 Lok Sabha poll results shows that the BJP’s average victory margin in 240 seats is nearly 3.36 lakh votes as compared to the Congress’s average margin of about 2.96 lakh votes in its 99 seats.

In 2019, the BJP had won 303 seats with an average margin of about 2.32 lakh votes whereas the Congress had won 52 seats with an average margin of nearly 1.21 lakh votes. Thus, the BJP’s average margin grew by 44% and the Congress’s by 144%.

In the heartland states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana, the BJP’s average victory margin stands at about 2.76 lakh votes, which exceeds the Congress’s 2.05-lakh average margin. The BJP suffered big losses in UP, Rajasthan and Haryana, while the Congress failed to win any seats in MP.

The Samajwadi Party (SP) put up its best show in the Lok Sabha polls by winning 37 seats in UP this time. Its average victory margin across these seats remained 77,556 votes. In 2019, when the party had won only five seats, its average margin had stood at nearly 1.47 lakh votes.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) has won 29 seats out of 42