INDIA alliance in Bengal hangs on Congress demand for more than 2 seats, but why numbers an eyeopener

On Wednesday, West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo Mamata Banerjee said seat-sharing with the Congress in the state’s Lok Sabha seats was off the table. The dispute arose over the number of seats the TMC was ready to give to the Congress as part of the INDIA alliance, with the Congress rejecting the offer of the 2 Lok Sabha seats that it had won in the previous polls.

Seat-sharing talks in Bengal were always going to be difficult, particularly given the hesitance of the state units of the Congress and CPI(M) towards an alliance with the TMC. As the Congress central leadership remains hopeful of achieving a breakthrough, here is why it has few cards in its hands:

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, which the TMC has been citing as proof of the Congress’s weakness in the state, the Congress contested 40 of the state’s 42 seats and won 2, with 5.7% of the vote share. It was the party’s second worst Lok Sabha performance in the state since 1998.

While the TMC won 22 seats with 43.7% of the vote share, the BJP emerged as the primary opposition for the first time in a Lok Sabha election in the state, displacing the Congress and CPI(M) to win 18 seats and 40.6% of the vote share.

While the Congress won comfortably in Baharampur, with its state chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury getting 45.5% of the vote share, it faced a much tougher fight in Maldaha Dakshin, where Abu Hasem Khan Chowdhury’s 35.1% vote share was just 0.7% points ahead of the BJP runner-up.

In the rest of the state, the party’s performance was dismal, with the Congress finishing as the runner-up in just 1 seat, third in 5 seats, and fifth in 1 seat. In as many as 31 of the 42 seats, it came fourth.

The Congress’s 2014 Lok Sabha poll performance had been