In aspirational districts, BJP seats dip, Congress doubles tally; vote shares almost constant from 2019

In 2018, the BJP-led Central government launched the Aspirational Districts Programme that sought to develop the 112 most under-developed districts across the country.

In the subsequent Lok Sabha polls in 2019, the BJP won 64 of the 115 constituencies that fall under these districts, and its allies won another 17, making it a total of 81 seats for the party-led NDA.

In the recent Lok Sabha polls, however, the BJP and its allies won fewer of these seats at 56 and 13, respectively, making it a total of 69 seats for the NDA.

Among the Opposition parties, the Congress in particular capitalised on the NDA’s decline, winning 22 such seats this time, doubling its 2019 tally of 11.

The other INDIA bloc members won 15 seats, up from just four in the previous polls. Together, the INDIA alliance won 37 seats, up from 15 in 2019.

In terms of vote share though, despite the seat swing, the BJP and the Congress remained at roughly the same level across these 115 seats as in previous polls.

In 2019, the BJP had secured 35.42% of the vote share in these seats, with the figure rising marginally to 35.43% in 2024. The Congress, on the other hand, saw its vote share rise from 22.9% in 2019 to 24.03% in 2024.

But the NDA as a whole saw its vote share drop from 47.23% to 44.31% while the INDIA bloc parties saw their combined vote share rise considerably from 30.45% to 37.38%.

Out of the 115 seats, 45 changed their party preferences between 2019 and 2024. Of the 64 seats won by the BJP in 2019, the party retained a majority at 49, with the Congress and its INDIA bloc allies managing to flip just 14 seats. In Bihar’s Sheohar, though, the BJP’s ally Janata Dal (United) contested and won this time. The BJP was, however, able to flip six seats from other