Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest poll updates

It is now less than two months until Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election, after she replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket in July.

Fresh polls suggest that Harris may be sweeping up elusive independent voters; though races in the swing states are still too close to call, with Harris and Trump neck and neck in Pennsylvania.

So how will Harris actually fare against Trump in November?

Harris has a 3.1-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls.

In a pivotal shift, Harris also leads Trump by +7.7 percent among independent voters, according to a new poll from Emerson College (up to September 4). This is compared to a +2 point for Harris among all voters.

Capturing the independent vote will be crucial for either Harris or Trump to take the lead in this election. This is also the most likely group to vote for a third-party candidate, though with RFK Jr. out of the race, this has dwindled to just 4 percent of independents.

The nationwide Emerson College poll has 49.5 percent of independents saying they would vote for Harris, compared to 41.8 percent for Trump.

This is a substantial jump from the same poll one month ago, which showed Harris just inching ahead of Trump (46 percent to 45 percent) among independent voters.

However, 5 percent of independent voters say they are still undecided; and the elusive voter group are difficult to pin down, with higher variation between polls and regions than other demographics. Nonetheless, Harris can be credited with mobilizing the non-partisan voter base, whose support