Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest poll updates

Vice President Kamala Harris is making a bid for the White House with running mate Tim Walz after replacing President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket months before Election Day.

Fresh polls suggest that the Harris-Trump gender divide is growing, and the rural-urban-suburban split is staying strong.

As Donald Trump pivots his attention from New Hampshire to Pennsylvania, Biden and Harris rallied together in Pittsburgh on Monday.

So how will Harris actually fare against Trump in November?

While independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr suspended his presidential campaign in August and endorsed Trump, there has been no clear ripple effect as of yet, with neither candidate receiving a substantial boost in support.

Harris has a 3.1-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls, though the race remains tight with variation in swing states.

However, a new poll up to September 2 by Activote has Harris’s lead at just 1.6 percent, following weeks of a 5-point lead.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters is self-selected, as respondents choose to download the app and contribute.

While Trump is taking home rural voters, at 63 percent, Harris leads among both urban-resident (58 percent) and suburban voters (56 percent).

Suburban voters chose Trump over Hilary Clinton in 2016, while in 2020, Biden flipped the lead for Democrats.

Another ABC News/Ipsos poll up to August 27 shows that the American public thinks that Harris is doing a better job on her campaign overall, while Trump is in the red.

The poll also suggests that a third of Trump supporters (31 percent) have reservations about their choice.

This is nearly double