Behind Haryana reshuffle, ghosts of 2019: JJP was a factor in half the seats, but cut into both BJP, Cong votes

Following failed seat-sharing talks between the BJP and the Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) for Haryana’s 10 Lok Sabha constituencies, the BJP dissolved their alliance on Tuesday, and subsequently formed a new government with support from Independents and Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini at the helm.

The reshuffle by the BJP appears to be more driven by the Assembly elections in the state later this year, rather than the Lok Sabha polls, which the BJP had swept last time.

Over the past two decades, the BJP and Congress have been the dominant parties in Haryana. In the Assembly, after two consecutive terms under the Congress’s Bhupinder Singh Hooda, from 2005 to 2014, the BJP has held power for the last two terms, beginning with the Narendra Modi wave in 2014.

The Lok Sabha polls have reflected this trend, with the Congress winning the most seats in 2004 and 2009, but the BJP taking the lead in 2014 and 2019.

After Haryana was carved out of Punjab in 1966, the state Assembly was dominated by the Congress until 1996, interrupted by the Janata Party’s single term in power beginning in 1977 after the Emergency, and the Lok Dal government’s brief stint from 1987 to 1991, after which the Congress returned.

However, the BJP has been on the rise. In 1996, the BJP supported the Haryana Vikas Party to form the government. In 2000, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), the predominantly Jat party founded by former Deputy Prime Minister Chaudhary Devi Lal, came to power.

After two Congress governments led by Hooda, it was in 2014 that Khattar became the state’s first BJP CM. Months after the BJP won 7 of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state, reducing the Congress to just 1 and the INLD to 2, the BJP went on to win an