Why BJP wooed Nitish back: Answer lies in both NDA’s 2019 LS sweep and its narrow 2021 Assembly win

WITH THE return of the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) to its ranks, the NDA hopes to have a repeat performance as in 2019, when it had won 39 of the state’s 40 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress won the remaining single seat.

The NDA, with the BJP now the undeclared senior-most partner in Bihar, also has more partners now than in 2019, when it comprised the BJP, JD(U) and the united Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). The BJP and JD(U) had both contested 17 seats each at the time, and the LJP 6 seats.

The NDA had won a combined vote share of 54.34%, and swept the polls. The BJP and LJP had won all the seats they contested, while the JD(U) fell short on only 1 seat, which went to the Congress.

It was a struggle for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, which included the Congress, Hindustani Awami Morcha (Secular) (HAM(S)), Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) and one other minor party, which together secured 31.23% of the votes but won just 1 seat. The Congress victory came in 1 of the 9 seats it contested, while the RJD could not win any of the 19 in its share. The Left parties too failed to win a single seat among the 19 they contested.

Notably, the RJD’s zero tally was despite its vote share being a respectable 15.68%, with the BJP at 24.06% and the JD(U) at 22.26%.

2024 situation

The alliance matrix is not markedly different in 2024 compared to 2019, with the NDA now comprising apart from the BJP and JD(U), the HAM(S) and former minister Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM).

In its seat-sharing arrangement announced on Monday, the BJP is contesting 17 seats again, while the JD(U) and LJP will fight one less seat each at 16 and 5, respectively. This will allow the two new allies to get 1 seat each.

The INDIA bloc, now including the RJD, Congress and Left,