A cold snap could swipe the spotlight in low-drama Iowa caucuses

The forecast now calls for sub-zero temperatures on the night Iowans caucus to commence their presidential nominating process. But some in the state have been feeling another chill: the sense that their much ballyhooed "first in the nation" exercises might not matter all that much this year.

Starting in the 1970s, Iowa established itself as the starting line for the national presidential race. Each four years, its caucuses occasioned a frenzy in the worlds of politics and media. But in this unusual cycle, an unusual word has appeared in some of the media coverage — the word "relevance," often in a sentence ending with a question mark.

Most news stories and commentaries still argue for the relevance of the caucuses. The Democrats are not beginning their delegate selection here this year, but Republicans still are. And after months of debates and ads and media jousts, this is the GOP candidates' first test with measurable consequences.

That preference of place is what Iowa has marketed so successfully for its caucuses for decades. Since 1972 they have provided the first thing that looks like actual voting – albeit in an unusual format. They also precede the famous first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire, which this year follows on January 23.

But beyond the distinction of being first, Iowa has also marketed something else: the element of surprise. In the half century since those 1972 caucuses, Iowa has staged a dozen reiterations. And more times than not, the news that emerged was news largely because it caught most of the media off guard – and editors everywhere trotted out headlines about "another Iowa surprise."

The focus on Iowa began around the time the Democratic Party was creating a new system of caucuses