With the fake drama of the Iowa caucuses over, we can focus on Trump’s real dangers

There were no surprises out of Iowa. Donald Trump had led the state’s polls by about 30 points and current tallies suggest that he’s won by about that much.

The voters who braved the bitter cold to officially kick off the Republican primary were, plainly, exactly the ones the former president needed and wanted – ABC’s entrance polls registered immigration and the economy as their top issues and additionally found that 63% of caucus-goers would consider Trump fit for the presidency even if he were convicted of a crime. All of this was predictable; all of it suggests that the time and energy the candidates and the media alike have spent hyping up this first contest ⁠– and perhaps this primary campaign as a whole ⁠– have been mostly wasted.

There was a bit of manufactured drama over the question of whether Trump would win the caucuses by at least 50%, in keeping with his standing in the pre-caucus polls – a metric Haley took a particular interest in given that Trump’s “underperformance” on that score might narratively lay the groundwork for a potential upset in New Hampshire.

But it’s been widely forgotten that Trump actually lost Iowa back in 2016 as a much weaker candidate before going on to take the nomination. He’s doing well enough in the national polls ⁠– with the support of more than 60% of the Republican electorate ⁠– that losing New Hampshire won’t be fatal for him and losing Iowa altogether likely wouldn’t have been either.

If it was ever in the cards, Trump’s defeat in the primaries was never going to be a matter of dominoes tipping away after a crucial loss ⁠– without a campaign and a message that can capture a meaningful share of the voters Trump has held in thrall since taking the presidency nearly eight years