5 things to watch for in the Iowa caucuses

The 2024 primary season is finally beginning, with Iowa kicking it off with its first-in-the-nation Republican caucuses on Monday.

Former President Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the state — and the ultimate GOP nomination — according to polling tracked by 538, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are battling for second place and projecting confidence they can prove their viability with voters.

History proves that winning the caucuses is far from a guarantee of an eventual presidential nomination, but a strong margin of victory, or even beating expectations, could serve as a serious boost for a candidate heading into primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Here are five things to watch for heading into voting on Monday night.

The ultimate victor in Iowa's caucuses looks like it will be Trump, if the months and months of polling is accurate. What remains less clear is how much he might win by.

538's polling average in Iowa currently shows Trump with about 51% support, a roughly 35-point edge over Haley, his nearest competitor, who sits at about 17%. DeSantis has narrowly fallen behind Haley, with about 16%.

Strategists and the campaigns themselves are widely expecting that to be too much ground to make up for either Haley or DeSantis, with allies casting a strong second place as a victory.

«They're viewing me as an underdog. I think that's better,» DeSantis said Sunday on ABC's «This Week.»

Haley echoed that in a campaign trail appearance later Sunday: «We're gonna go all the way until the last hour because we know what situation we're in.»

Trump's team has said anything beyond a 12-point win — the largest margin of victory ever seen in Iowa — would count as a