How Donald Trump broke the Iowa caucuses

Not since the victory of then-Texas Governor George W Bush in the 2000 Republican primary has the Iowa caucuses picked theeventual GOP nominee.

Ironically, as the first-in-the-nation contest looks set to do so again nearly a quarter-century later, former President Donald Trump’s expected overwhelming victory on Monday 15 January may reveal the diminished influence of the caucuses, which the Democrats have now dropped altogether in favour of mail-in ballots for the 2024 contest.

Since the 1970s, the entire point of the caucuses has been that in a small state such as Iowa, an unknown presidential candidate can work hard and shake as many hands as humanly possible, perform well above expectations, and subsequently ride the wave of attention and momentum all the way to the nomination.

The example most cited is the 1976 win for Jimmy Carter, the former governor of Georgia who would go on to beat incumbent President Gerald Ford.

Mr Carter did the grunt work, starting to spend time in the state before anyone else, and building his support by doing person-to-person politicking.

Mr Trump has hosted massive rallies, speaking to hundreds and sometimes thousands of people at once. If fewer than 400 attended, it was considered a small event. The ex-president looks likely to win Monday’s contest handily having done very little, if any, of the small-scale campaigning that used to be required to win. Iowa is no longer universally seen as the stepping stone it once was.

The former president faces 91 criminal counts after he was indicted four times last year.

His attempts to overturn the 2020 election prompted legal action in Georgia, and Washington, DC, while his handling of classified documents led to an indictment in Florida. Mr Trump