With Israel 'Emboldened,' Washington Braces For Fresh Middle East Bloodshed In Lebanon

Last Tuesday, Israel’s military approveda plan to invade Lebanon to fight its dominant militia, Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s leader issuedhis strongest threats against Israel in years the following day. And the U.S., Israel’s most powerful ally, has indicatedthat it will not block an Israeli offensive.

That’s just the past week. Over the nine months prior, more than 150,000 people on either side of the Israeli-Lebanese border have fled their homes as alternating rounds of Hezbollah rockets and Israeli airstrikes have steadily expanded. The attacks have extended beyond the two sides’ border combat facilities, killing nearly 100 Lebanese civilians and 10 Israeli civilians, rendering southern Lebanon “ uninhabitable ” and striking journalists , the U.S.-backed Lebanese military and even Lebanon’s capital of Beirut.

Yet the U.S. and Israel argue they can still avoid a new Middle East war in Lebanon, a conflict that would be catastrophic and worsen regional instability already exacerbated by the Gaza conflict.

In public remarks at the Pentagon on Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant projected hope for U.S.-led attempts at a deal between Israel and Hezbollah that prevents all-out fighting. Negotiations can prevent “terrible consequences,” Austin said, while Gallant spoke of “working closely together to achieve an agreement” that convinces his country and its Lebanese foe to cease hostilities.

The underlying issue is whether Hezbollah maintains its huge presence in southern Lebanon, spitting distance from northern Israel — which violates a United Nations resolution and which Israel sees as an intolerable threat following the Oct. 7 attack that Hezbollah’s ally Hamas, a Palestinian