Will the state again see a split vote? Five things to watch out for in Odisha

The simultaneous Odisha battle for the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections was fiercely fought, and a day ahead of the results, both the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and BJP claimed they will get a clear majority.

While most exit polls put the BJP ahead in the battle for the 21 Lok Sabha seats – it won eight last time – they differ on the Assembly numbers. While the India Today-Axis My India survey predicts 62-80 seats for both parties out of 147, with a 10% rise in the BJP’s vote share, the Times Now-ETG Research survey predicts a clean sweep for the BJD, with a projection of 100-115 seats, with 30-38 for the BJP.

Irrespective of the final numbers, the going is likely to get bumpier for the BJD, as the BJP grows in strength. As for the Congress, a party that ruled the state for over 40 years, its struggle to stay relevant will continue.

Elections to the Assembly and Lok Sabha seats in Odisha were stretched over four phases, from May 13 to June 1.

Here are the five things to look out for:

An erstwhile ally of the BJP, the BJD has managed to retain good relations with the Narendra Modi government at the Centre despite being technically in the Opposition. This is primarily due to BJD chief Naveen Patnaik’s cordial relations with the BJP’s top brass, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, but also because of its numbers in both Houses of Parliament. While the BJD won 20 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 and 12 in 2019, it also has nine members in the Rajya Sabha, making it an influential bloc.

Given the bitterness of the 2024 election fight, when the BJP went after Naveen Patnaik and his confidant V K Pandian personally, a weaker BJD will have few bargaining power left at the Centre. In that scenario, the BJP can