What to watch out for in Iowa, the first contest of the 2024 GOP primary

It’s finally here: the first test of the Republican primary field at the hands of voters.

Four prominent Republican candidates have charged into the Buckeye state hoping for different outcomes. Donald Trump, the frontrunner, wants a convincing victory to signal to voters (and donors) that the race is all but wrapped up. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are hoping for shock successes that will give them the momentum needed to overtake Mr Trump in later states, such as New Hampshire. And Vivek Ramaswamy is hoping for a shot of adrenaline in the heart of his struggling campaign following an unceremonious exclusion from the debate stage lineup.

Chris Christie, seeing himself wholly uncompetitive in the first contest of 2024 — and losing ground in New Hampshire — has thrown in the towel.

Political analysts hoping for clues about the trajectory of the rest of the primary, and most crucially an answer to the question of whether anyone has a chance at beating Mr Trump, are also looking at Iowa closely. Monday’s results will likely determine the fate of several candidates, while also providing a window for speculation about the general election.

Here’s what The Independent is keeping an eye on over the weekend:

The Haley surge — is it real?

This is Nikki Haley’s moment, and she knows it. After months of focusing much of her efforts in the relatively friendlier territory of New Hampshire, the former governor and ambassador embarked on a last minute Iowa barnstorm these past few weeks as polling suddenly showed her closing the gap and even possibly overtaking second-place Ron DeSantis across Iowa. That leaves two potential boons for her campaign on the table: a boost of momentum that could carry her into New Hampshire, where she is