What Nikki Haley needs in the New Hampshire primary

The odds are stacked against Nikki Haley. To have the slimmest of chances of beating Donald Trump, she needs to overcome the polls, the former president’s momentum, and his now almost decade-long iron grip on the Republican base.

But if she’s to achieve one of the most stunning upsets in GOP primary history, that journey has to begin in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

The former president garnered 52 per cent to his former UN ambassador’s 34 per cent, according to polling of likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters by The Washington Post and Monmouth University conducted between 16 and 20 January.

While the numbers are moving in her favour – she has gained 16 points since November to Mr Trump’s six – it’s unlikely to be enough.

The problem for the former South Carolina governor is that while she can claim to have momentum on her side, she eventually needs to get more votes than the other guy.

In 2016, candidates like Florida Senator Marco Rubio and former Ohio Governor John Kasich stayed in the race beyond their time in the hope that Mr Trump would suddenly drop like a rock under the weight of his many scandals.

In 2024, all but one of Mr Trump’s challengers didn’t make it nearly as far, but part of their thinking appeared to be similar to those taking on Mr Trump eight years previously – this time it was the former president’s litany of legal problems that was going to take him out.

Even if Mr Trump is convicted on any of the 91 counts against him before he wins the nomination – which at the moment appears unlikely – the Republican base doesn’t seem to want to leave him behind. In fact, the indictments against him have boosted his support among likely GOP primary voters.

In short, what Ms Haley needs to do in New