What next for Nikki Haley as New Hampshire showdown looms in wake of Iowa disappointment?

Nikki Haley is having a moment. Whether it will evolve into a disaster remains to be seen.

The former governor and UN ambassador entered the Iowa caucuses on Monday with the wind at her back, boosted by climbing poll numbers in every state and with campaign-watchers believing that a rout of her rival, Florida Gov Ron DeSantis, was at hand.

Instead, she settled for third place. Mr DeSantis came out ahead, barely but verifiably on top. Donald Trump, the continued frontrunner for the nomination, was miles away — more than 30 points separated Mr Trump and Ms Haley’s final percentage totals.

Despite this, Ms Haley was unbent on the stage of her caucus-night event in Clive. Appearing onstage after Vivek Ramaswamy showed up at his own event and dropped out, the ex-ambassador declared the 2024 GOP primary to be a two-person race going forward. Mr DeSantis, she argued (somewhat questionably, given the result), is no longer a factor.

Now, that race heads to New Hampshire; later, Nevada and South Carolina. The ground ahead is unfavourable terrain for Mr DeSantis, who does worse with independents than does Ms Haley and is not projected to do well in the next several contests. For the same reason, it represents the best opportunity for Ms Haley to pull ahead, even possibly within range of the frontrunner.

But Monday night’s results do not help make that path any easier.

While not a campaign-ending performance by any standard, her inability to crack 20 per cent in Iowa will provide none of the momentum she was hoping for as her campaign headed to the Granite State just hours after voting ended in the first contest. The ex-governor needs to charge into her home state, South Carolina, with her campaign on a noticeable upswing if she has