US growth likely slowed last quarter but still pointed to a solid economy

WASHINGTON (AP) — Coming off a robust end to 2023, the U.S. economy is thought to have extended its surprisingly healthy streak at the start of this year, with consumers still spending freely despite the pressure of high interest rates.

The Commerce Department is expected to report Thursday that the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — grew at a slow but still-decent 2.2% annual pace from January through March, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet.

Some economists envision a stronger expansion than that. A forecasting model issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta points to a first-quarter annual pace of 2.7%, propelled by a 3.3% increase in consumer spending, the principal driver of economic growth.

Either way, the economy’s growth is widely expected to have decelerated from the vigorous 3.4% annual pace of October through December. The slowdown reflects, in large part, the much higher borrowing rates for home and auto loans, credit cards and many business loans that have resulted from the 11 interest rate hikes the Federal Reserve imposed in its drive to tame inflation.

Even so, the United States has continued to outpace the rest of the world’s advanced economies. The International Monetary Fund has projected that the world’s largest economy will grow 2.7% for all of 2024, up from 2.5% last year and more than double the growth the IMF expects this year for Germany, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada.

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