Trump holds wide lead over GOP field ahead of Iowa caucuses, poll finds

CNN —

Former President Donald Trump holds a wide lead over his Republican presidential competitors among likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa, the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll before Monday’s caucuses found.

Overall, 48% of likely caucusgoers say Trump would be their first choice, 20% name former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and 16% Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, with the rest of the field below 10%.

Trump stood at 51% in the December DMR/NBC poll and 43% in October, with his chief rivals in the teens in both of those prior polls.

Haley’s numerical move to second place is within the margin of error. Neither her support nor DeSantis’s has changed significantly since the December poll, when DeSantis stood at 19% to Haley’s 16% in a survey with a 4.4 point error margin.

In this poll, Haley faces a sizable enthusiasm gap compared with Trump or DeSantis. While majorities of their supporters say they are enthusiastic about their candidates, only about 4 in 10 of hers say the same.

Iowa’s most important poll has set the expectations for the GOP caucuses

Overall, roughly two-thirds of likely caucusgoers – 68% – say their minds are made up about whom to support. The poll was fielded among 705 likely GOP caucusgoers during the final stretch of campaigning from January 7 to January 12, with Trump’s backers far more likely to say they are committed to their candidate than those supporting other candidates.

About 8 in 10 Trump supporters – 82% – say their minds are made up, up from December when 70% said they were locked in. Fewer Haley backers, 63%, or DeSantis supporters, 64%, are similarly locked in, though both have solidified a majority of their supporters