Iowa’s most important poll has set the expectations for the GOP caucuses

CNN —

Former President Donald Trump looks to be on the verge of a historic victory in the Iowa caucuses. The final poll from Iowa’s premier pollster, Ann Selzer, has Trump at 48% followed by former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 20% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 16%.

If the final outcome Monday night mirrors the poll, Trump will have won the highest Iowa GOP caucus vote share for a non-incumbent ever.

Still, his victory is not the only thing that would matter. What ultimately may be more important in the short term is his margin of victory – and who finishes in second place.

Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks onstage at a campaign rally before giving remarks on January 05, 2024 in Mason City, Iowa.

Trump holds wide lead over GOP field ahead of Iowa caucuses, poll finds

That’s because with New Hampshire voting in just 10 days, expectations – and whether candidates meet them in Iowa – matter.

Expectations may seem like some immeasurable metric made up by a bunch of pundits. They’re not. Expectations are easily measurable. It’s about how a candidate does in the voting relative to their final polls.

Polling in the Granite State shows the race close with Trump and Haley tied, once you reallocate supporters of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie – who dropped out of the race last week – to their second choice, according to CNN’s most recent poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

There are two variables that historically best predict New Hampshire primary results at this point: the New Hampshire polls (like the one I just mentioned) and how well a candidate does in Iowa compared to their final polls.

This may seem a little odd, but it actually makes