Tories Could See Bigger Swings Against Them In Seats Where MPs Are Standing Down

The Conservatives could see bigger swings against their party in the general election in seats where the incumbent is standing down, according to political scientist Professor Rob Ford.

Ford, a politics professor at the University of Manchester told PoliticsHome that he would “expect” to “see a swing against the Conservatives that’s a few points larger in open seats” than in those where an MP is standing again.

But he also warned that it may not be enough to save MPs their jobs, as the value of a personal vote is only likely to make a difference if a race for a parliamentary seat is very close. 

More than 100 MPs are leaving Parliament at this General Election, with departures having continued to be announced since Rishi Sunak called the poll, which will be held on 4 July.

Among them are more than 75 Conservatives, including former prime minister Theresa May, former chancellor Sajid Javid and long-serving Cabinet minister Michael Gove. 

A poll from YouGov last week, after the election was called, showed that there is still more than a 20 percentage point gap between Labour and the Conservatives, with Keir Starmer’s party on 44 per cent, compared to the Tories’ 22 per cent. 

Our first YouGov Westminster voting intention poll since the election was called (23-24 May)

Con: 22% (+1 from 21-22 May)
Lab: 44% (-2)
Reform UK: 14% (+2)
Lib Dem: 9% (=)
Green: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

All figures are within the margin of error of the previous poll… pic.twitter.com/gYU3fnpg3I

Ford predicted that the role of any personal vote for MPs who have served their constituencies before is “only going to make a difference if the race is very close”. 

“So if you’re a Conservative MP and your majority is less than 30 per cent, I don’t think that personal