The states to watch on the 2024 electoral map

To better understand the landscape for the presidential election with a little more than six months to go, here is our initial Electoral Vote map of the cycle.

It focuses on the states that are expected to be most competitive in the effort by the campaigns to get to 270 electoral votes, a majority of the 538 total available.

There are a number of paths each candidate can take to victory. Follow them here.

This analysis, which will appear and be adjusted semi-regularly until Election Day, goes beyond just polling and is based on conversations with campaigns and strategists, NPR reporting from the field, campaign activity, and historical and demographic trends.

It lays out which direction the states are leaning at this point and are organized into seven categories – Toss Up, Lean Republican, Lean Democratic, Likely Republican, Likely Democratic, Safe Republican and Safe Democratic.

State analysis and ad spending

Trump holds slight advantages in most of the swing states right now, according to averages of the polls. Strictly going by the polls, Trump would have a 283-255 lead (if you give Biden Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are currently statistical ties).

But the toss up states are expected to be close, within just a few points, in either candidate's direction. Biden currently has a massive war chest and ad-spending advantage. In addition to personnel, ads are the largest expenditure of a presidential campaign.

Third-party scramble

It's also unclear how third-party candidates could affect the map. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been pulling double digits in polling, and it's not totally clear which side he pulls most from. Polls have shown him pulling evenly, some have shown him pulling more from Trump, others more