Electoral College changes could put Trump back in the White House

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The 2020 presidential election was one of the closest and most controversial in American history, and preliminary polling suggests that the 2024 rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden will likely be just as hotly contested. However, there are two major differences between 2020 and 2024 that could prove to be the deciding factors in the race.

The first is that 2024 features a relatively popular third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Recent national polls show RFK Jr. could capture as much as 16% of the popular vote. If RFK Jr. were to win 16% of the vote, it would make him, by far, the most successful third-party candidate since Ross Perot in 1992.

The second important change in the 2024 race is one that has not received nearly as much attention. Following the 2020 Census, the House of Representatives reapportioned congressional seats among the states, a constitutional requirement. Whenever the House of Representatives is reapportioned, the Electoral College is also adjusted.

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Although the changes to the 2024 Electoral College map appear minimal at first glance, they could prove to be pivotal for Trump, who benefited significantly from the adjustments.

Thirteen states experienced changes to their Electoral College vote count in the recent reapportionment. Seven lost one vote: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Five gained one vote: Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon. One state, Texas, gained two votes.

All told, Republican-leaning states gained two votes in the Electoral College and