The Haryana question: Congress banks on farmer, wrestler anger against BJP, but can 2019’s 30% vote gap be bridged?

Five years ago, the BJP had a clean sweep in Haryana, winning all its 10 Lok Sabha seats, including eight with huge margins. But come Saturday, the party is likely to face an uphill task maintaining its tally – or worse, minimising its losses – due to multiple events since 2019.

If the Congress does manage to cause a dent, it would be a big achievement given that there was approximately a 30% vote-share gap between the two parties in 2019 – the BJP’s 58.02% votes, vs the Congress’s 28.42%. The other parties barely registered, with the Jannayak Janata Party getting 4.9% votes and the INLD 1.89%.

The May 25 polling is expected to remain similarly bipolar, with the Congress and BJP directly pitted against each other in nine seats. In Kurukshetra, from where Congress ally Aam Aadmi Party’s candidate is the INDIA bloc nominee, the field has opened up with the entry of the INLD’s Abhay Chautala.

One of the most significant developments since 2019 that will impact voting is the year-long 2020-21 farmer protest against the Modi government’s since-repealed farmer laws. Apart from Punjab, Haryana’s farmers were part of the protest. With over 65% of the state’s population living in rural areas, the issue has deep resonance in Haryana.

Another ongoing protest by Punjab’s farmers on the Shambhu border also caught attention here. An indication of this were the near-constant protests against almost all BJP candidates in the state through the campaign.

The second big factor has been the anger over the Modi government’s treatment of women Olympian wrestlers who accused senior BJP leader Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh of sexual harassment. Many of the wrestlers originate from the same rural belt of Haryana.

The third factor is anti-incumbency