Odisha a mixed bag in 2019, will BJD and BJP again share the honours this time?

Like in 2019, the simultaneous elections in Odisha this time will be held in four phases, with the only difference this time being that the state will vote in the last four of the seven phases, unlike last time when it voted in the first four phases.

That Odisha will go to the polls almost a month after the general elections begin will give the BJP some more time to campaign and gain whatever advantage it can, according to BJP insiders. But that may not be enough given that five years ago Odisha witnessed split voting, with the ruling BJD winning the Assembly polls comfortably and the electorate giving the BJP a handsome lead in the Lok Sabha polls.

The BJD led by Naveen Patnaik had won a majority of the Lok Sabha and Assembly seats since breaking ties with the BJP in 2009 and contesting alone. But last time, the regional party failed to repeat its 2009 and 2014 success in the parliamentary elections. It, however, continued winning the state elections.

“Given that every Lok Sabha constituency in Odisha comprises seven Assembly segments and there were simultaneous polls, the BJP could have won at least 40 to 45 seats in 2019. The voting pattern indicated the political maturity of the voters of the state. If multiple survey reports are anything to go by, we expect a similar voting pattern in the coming polls as well,” said a senior BJP leader.

Seats and vote shares

Of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha, the BJD’s tally reduced to 12 in 2019 — it was 20 in 2014 and 14 in 2009 — while the BJP’s tally jumped from one in 2014 to eight. The Opposition party swept western Odisha by winning all five seats in the region and bagged three others in northern and coastal pockets. The Congress that had drawn a blank in 2014 won the Koraput