Nitish’s flip-flop, flip-flop: Numbers show it has always paid JD(U) to join hands with BJP in Lok Sabha

Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) supremo Nitish Kumar has struck an alliance with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) once again, making it the fourth time in the past decade that he has switched sides.

In the current 243-member Bihar Assembly, Nitish-led JD(U) has 45 MLAs and the BJP 78, taking the combine’s tally to 123, with one more Independent expected to support it, taking them over the 122-member majority mark. The RJD along with the Congress and the Left parties have a combined 114 MLAs, eight short of a majority.

Electorally, it’s a considerable loss for the INDIA bloc in a state that has been dominated by the JD(U) both in the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. For the JD(U) and BJP, it’s a tried-and-tested alliance that fared well in the 2019 general elections and the 2020 Assembly polls.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA in Bihar comprised the BJP, JD(U) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Of the 40 parliamentary seats in the state, the BJP and JD(U) each contested 17 seats and the LJP six seats. With a combined vote share of 54.34%, the alliance swept the state, winning 39 of the 40 seats. While the BJP and LJP won all the seats they contested, the JD(U) fell short in 1 seat, which went to the Congress.

It was a struggle for the RJD-led alliance, which included the Congress and three other minor parties, which together won just 1 seat, despite securing 31.23% of the vote share. While the Congress that had contested 9 seats won that 1 seat, the RJD drew a blank in the 19 seats it contested.

The Left parties failed to win a single seat among the 19 they contested.

Notably, the RJD’s zero tally was despite it getting 15.68% of the votes, with the BJP at 24.06% and the JD(U) at 22.26%.

In 2014, the