How Will Vance Affect the Race? Look at 2028, Not 2024.

It’s hard to imagine a more eventful few weeks in presidential politics.

The campaign was jolted by President Biden’s debate performance, which led many Democrats to call on him to leave the race. Then a gunman attempted to assassinate Donald J. Trump. And now Mr. Trump has selected a vice-presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, at the start of what promises to be a raucous Republican convention.

Of all these events, the selection of Mr. Vance seems by far the least significant — at least for this campaign. Historically, vice-presidential selections play only a minor role in the course of presidential elections, and Mr. Vance is probably less likely than most to change the direction of the race.

His basic political identity — a white, male, populist Trump loyalist — reinforces the core message of the Trump ticket. This isn’t necessarily good or bad for Mr. Trump, but it makes Mr. Vance less likely to alter the campaign than the typical selection, which often tries to expand the appeal of the ticket or compensate for its weakness. Mr. Vance will not bestow a small home state “bonus” in a swing state, either, as Mr. Vance’s home state, Ohio, is not competitive.

And while Mr. Vance is a well-known and well-spoken figure who is unlikely to slip into obscurity (think Tim Kaine), it’s hard to imagine him outshining the top-of-the-ticket and becoming a dominant story line in the election (think Sarah Palin).

To the extent Mr. Vance’s electoral record is indicative of his political ability — and it’s probably not — it offers little reason to believe he has special appeal to voters. He won the Republican Senate primary in 2022 with just 32 percent of the vote, and probably only by the margin of Mr. Trump’s endorsement.

The 2022 general