Back-to-Back Assassinations in Middle East Scramble Biden’s Hopes for Peace

The White House declared earlier this week that fears of an all-out war in the Middle East were “exaggerated.” But that was Monday. By Wednesday, it was not quite so clear.

In the volatile, anything-can-happen-at-any-time Middle East, a lot can change in 48 hours. For President Biden, the back-to-back assassinations of a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and the political leader of Hamas in Iran have once again scrambled the geopolitical equation and revised the risk assessment.

Now a grudging lame-duck without an election campaign of his own to run, Mr. Biden had hoped to use his remaining time in office to finally bring an end to the war in Gaza and perhaps even reach a paradigm-shifting deal with Saudi Arabia and Israel that would transform the region. Neither goal was made any easier by the targeted killings of the past couple days, at least not in the short term.

But Mr. Biden’s team vowed on Wednesday not to give up. A team of American negotiators in Rome continued to pursue a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas while another team of American envoys met officials in Saudi Arabia to discuss regional tensions. U.S. officials anticipate that Hezbollah and Iran may attack Israel in response to the two assassinations, but they hope to keep the spiral of violence from escalating beyond limited strikes and to salvage the cease-fire talks after the dust settles.

“These reports over the last 24, 48 hours, certainly don’t help with the temperature going down, I’m not going to be Pollyannaish about it,” said John F. Kirby, a national security spokesman for the White House. “We’re obviously concerned about escalation,” he added, even while pursuing a cease-fire. “When you have events, dramatic events, violent events, caused by