5 key numbers that will decide the 2024 presidential election

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As we start the final month of the presidential campaign, the race appears to remain very close – much like every election of this century (except for Barack Obama’s first race in 2008). The latest Fox News national poll shows a two-point race in the national popular vote, with Vice President Kamala Harris slightly ahead of former President Trump 50-48 – and each of the seven key battleground states similarly showing the candidates within the margin of error from each other.

If you want to drop into the weeds (and I guess that’s why they pay me), I think there remain five key numbers that will indicate which candidate has the momentum in the race – and tell you which campaign is closer to achieving its goal.

I’d argue the key "weeds that count" are: Trump’s "number," Trump’s support among Hispanic and African American voters, Harris’s support among Republicans who don’t describe themselves as "MAGA," and Harris-Walz support among voters in rural America.

TRUMP CAN WIN ON THESE 3 KEY ISSUES, MICHIGAN VOTERS TELL FOX

Trump’s number is the number I’ve looked at all year: His share of the popular vote. All year it has hovered around 48% – in all the most-respected public polls. Trump’s political persona is about as solidified as any American politician in my professional lifetime. There is little that he, his