Where are the voters who could decide the presidential election?

WASHINGTON (AP) — When you hear the term bellwether, you might think about states in the presidential election that always vote with the White House winner. The true meaning of a bellwether is an indicator of a trend. And for that, you need to be thinking about counties.

In a closely contested presidential election, as many expect 2024 to be, the results in a few bellwether counties in the key battleground states are likely to decide the outcome, just as they did in the past two general elections.

Here’s a look at those that might matter the most on Election Day.

Start with the cities

Many of those states have large, Democratic-leaning cities. These cities and their inner suburbs are an important source of Democratic votes in statewide elections. These areas consistently vote for the Democratic candidates, which means turnout in these places can have an outsized effect on the final statewide margin.

This year, look at Michigan’s Wayne County (Detroit), North Carolina’s Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) and Georgia’s Fulton County (Atlanta).

Republican candidates have tended to do well in the more rural areas of these states, which means Democrat Kamala Harris will need to run up big margins in these places in order to offset Republican Donald Trump’s advantage elsewhere.

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