‘370 seats’: The numbers behind Modi’s target, BJP’s maths, Opposition’s challenge

In his final speech in the Lok Sabha on Monday, while replying to the Motion of Thanks on President Droupadi Murmu’s address, Prime Minister Narendra Modi set a target of 370 seats for the ruling BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and 400 seats for the NDA.

Modi spent a considerable portion of his speech targeting the Congress, the leader of the Opposition INDIA bloc, projecting the party as the BJP’s main challenger. “They cobbled together a coalition a few days ago, but now are walking alone. The Congress people have learnt the job of a motor mechanic. So, they must have learnt about alignment. But I am seeing that the alignment of the alliance has deteriorated,” Modi said, in what seemed to be a reference to Rahul Gandhi’s visit to a bike mechanic shop in Delhi last year.

Exemplifying the party’s confidence heading into the Lok Sabha polls, Modi said that the “third tenure” of the BJP would lay a strong foundation for “progress in the next 1,000 years”.

While the BJP has struggled against some regional parties in recent state polls, in bipolar Assembly contests against the Congress, it has largely won. In the Lok Sabha elections, on the other hand, the BJP has increased its seat tally and vote share in consecutive elections, since its defeat in 2009. After winning a majority with 282 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP further extended its lead by 21 seats to 303 in the 2019 polls. To hit Modi’s target of 370 seats this time, the BJP will need to win 67 more seats.

Here’s how the BJP fared in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the state elections since then.

The BJP’s 303 seats in 2019 were spread across the country, including all the constituencies in nine states and UTs, and a near sweep in another five.

While