With capital gains change, the Liberals grasp the tax reform nettle again

In the fall of 2021, the editors of the Canadian Tax Journal devoted several dozen pages to the «hotly debated» topic of capital gains.

On balance, the editors wrote, their selected contributors were in favour of raising the inclusion rate for capital gains — the share of an individual's capital gains that are subject to income tax rates. But they acknowledged that putting such a change into practice would not be easy.

«Opposition to capital gains tax increases among affected taxpayers is apt to be vociferous,» Michael Smart and Sobia Hasan Jafry wrote in one of the featured papers, «precisely because such a reform would act like a lump ­sum tax that would be difficult or impossible for taxpayers to avoid in the long run by changing their behaviour.»

Whatever its exact causes or motivations, «vociferous» opposition to tax hikes may be as old as taxation itself. But the Liberals already have firsthand experience of how loud that opposition can get, having watched one set of reforms struggle to survive an onslaught of confusion and controversy in the summer of 2017.

Now they're taking another swing at it — and one big question is whether they're better prepared for the blowback this time.

If the Liberals are hoping to look reasonable and measured, they can at least point to the fact that they haven't gone nearly as far as some wanted them to go.

In their 2001 paper, Smart and Hasan Jafry proposed increasing the inclusion rate from 50 per cent to 80 per cent for all capital gains. In her third budget, tabled last week, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland proposed an inclusion rate of 67 per cent for capital gains of $250,000 or more.

In their 2021 analysis, Smart and Hasan Jafry pointed out that the wealthiest families benefited