Will Trump win back some of the suburbs? Republicans insist they see opportunity in Biden rematch

Last week's Iowa caucuses posed something of a Rorschach test for one of the biggest questions of the 2024 cycle: Will Donald Trump's GOP continue to shed suburban support — or will enough of them return to the Republican base if faced, again, with choosing him or Joe Biden?

The history of Trump's problems in the suburbs came back into the spotlight after the Republican nominating race kicked off with Iowa's caucuses on Jan. 15, where Trump's margins of victory in many suburban counties were smaller than in rural counties.

Those results followed years of Republican atrophy in such areas, culminating in 2020 losses in key swing states fueled by defections from voters living near major cities like Atlanta, Phoenix and beyond.

But Trump still ended up winning 98 out of 99 counties in Iowa — only losing the last county to Nikki Haley by one vote — including many he failed to take in 2016, the last time there was an open GOP race and before he was bogged down by Jan. 6, two impeachments and four indictments. (He denies all wrongdoing.)

That had GOP allies as well as skeptics and critics of the former president telling ABC News they believe President Biden's reputation (evidenced by his weak approval rating) and record on inflation and the cost of living are problematic enough to give Trump a chance to win back some of the suburbanites who've been voting against Republicans since he first ran for president.

«He actually did a little better in the suburbs than I thought he would. I think Nikki Haley underperformed somewhat. Rubio won those counties, Nikki came closer but didn't win them,» veteran Iowa GOP strategist David Kochel, who has been critical of Trump, told ABC News, referencing Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's 2016 GOP campaign.