Will Maratha factor dent BJP in Maharashtra? 5 things to watch out for tomorrow

The result of Maharashtra’s 48 Lok Sabha seats will set the stage for political churning in the state where Assembly elections are scheduled to be held later this year.

Though the BJP managed to split the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena in the past two years, perceptibly weakening the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, the ticket distribution process was far from being a smooth-sailing process.

Here are five things to watch out for in Maharashtra on Tuesday:

A test for BJP

The split of parties coupled with the sharp Maratha versus OBC polarisation will be decisive as far as the BJP’s performance goes. The ruling Mahayuti alliance has set an ambitious target of winning 45 of the 48 seats, with a vote share of over 50%, but has had to deal with challenges such as agrarian distress in the run-up to the polls.

In 2019, the BJP won 23 of the 25 seats it contested in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, which won 18 seats. To retain the role of “big brother” in its new alliance, it will have to retain its seat share. The Lok Sabha results may also lead to a correction of socio-political fault lines in the organisation ahead of the Assembly elections.

Who will be the ‘real’ Sena?

Though Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s party has been recognised by the Election Commission (EC) as the Shiv Sena, the outcome on Tuesday will be decisive in proving which of the two Sena parties can lay claim to the undivided party’s legacy. The Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) are in direct contest in 13 constituencies.

Tough test for Pawar

The results will also decide the fate of NCP (SP) leader Sharad Pawar whose position was left weakened after the coup carried out by his nephew and