Why the third-party role in 2024 is so unpredictable: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, political embed Katherine Koretski and senior politics reporter Alex Seitz-Wald, who have immersed themselves in the third-party battle to make a mark on 2024, report on the latest announcement by No Labels and what's next in that group's 2024 plans. Plus, Kristen Welker digs into the State of the Union and what's next for President Joe Biden after the big speech.

The third-party guessing game rolls on

By Katherine Koretski, Alex Seitz-Wald and Scott Bland

No Labels held a virtual 800-person delegate meeting Friday, where the members voted to move forward with the process of forming a presidential ticket to run in the 2024 election.

There’s just one hitch: The group doesn’t have an actual candidate yet — and nothing about Friday made it clear whether it ever will.

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The outside group’s long-running dalliance with the 2024 presidential race illustrates why, even with so much else about the election seemingly set in stone, it’s still hard to say how much the many third-party candidates and groups eyeing this race could actually matter in November.

And it’s not just because third-party candidates often lose support in polls as Election Day draws nearer, though that is a real trend. There are two major logistical hurdles that can make things difficult.

State ballot access: Getting on the ballot as an independent is time-consuming and expensive. It’s why Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is leaning on a super PAC to help gather signatures to place him on state ballots,