Why the stakes look 'quite high' in the battle to win George Santos' seat in New York

PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. — The battle on Long Island to fill the seat left vacant by disgraced Rep. George Santos' expulsion involves millions of dollars, the attention of national groups and the return of notable political players — a reflection of how this off-cycle special election isn't passing by with little fanfare.

Instead, the race has come to be seen by some Democrats as a high-stakes litmus test of their electability in the very areas where they'll need to win in November if they want to retake Congress.

Yet as Democrats work to flip back New York's 3rd Congressional District and Republicans work to move past Santos' scandal, the outcome on Tuesday is far from certain.

In this race — where the local parties hand-picked candidates without any primary, because it's a special election — former Rep. Tom Suozzi, who represented a version of the same district for three terms, faces Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip, an Ethiopian-born former Israeli army soldier and current county legislator.

A poll released Thursday from Newsday and Siena College showed the candidates effectively even: 48% of likely voters in the district said they'd vote for Suozzi, while 44% indicated they'd go for Pilip — a result within the poll's margin of error.

Santos' dramatic, much-covered downfall is essentially a non-factor here, rarely mentioned on the stump even as, in the last few weeks, Democrats looked to tie him more directly to Pilip. He has told CNN he doesn't plan to vote.

Instead, candidates, their allies and observers point to a web of issues that they say are shaping the race and how the candidates pitch themselves — on the border and public safety, on Israel, on abortion and more. Those are some of the same issues that could also shape