Why the New York special election for George Santos’ seat matters

CNN —

Democrats, when confronted with President Joe Biden’s poor polling numbers, often counter with some form of the following: “Polls are polls, but when people vote, Democrats are doing well.”

The idea being that Democrats have done well in major special and off-year elections since the 2022 midterms.

The special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District to succeed the infamous George Santos offers perhaps the best chance to test Democrats’ theory ahead of the presidential election.

Does former Rep. Tom Suozzi win in yet another example of Democrats defying national polling trends? Or does Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip secure victory, showing how Republicans are winning pivotal races in places Biden comfortably won in 2020?

Yes, we’re looking at just one election on Long Island, but it’s a fascinating one.

As we enter Election Day, the race seems far too close to call. A Newsday/Siena College poll released last week put Suozzi at 48% and Pilip at 44%, a result well within the margin of error. Throw in forecasted bad weather in this Nassau County and eastern Queens district, and we really can’t be certain who will emerge victorious.

The fact that the race is tight makes sense if you look at the district’s recent voting record. I mentioned that Biden carried the seat in 2020 (by 8 points), but local Republicans have been dominating since. They did well in 2023’s local races. GOP candidates for governor and US Senate won the district by margins between 4 and 12 points in 2022, as did Santos.

This means that even a narrow Suozzi victory would be impressive for Democrats given how well Republicans have done in other elections in the area.

Indeed, outside of Long Island, Democrats did well in