Why the 'double haters' of 2024 are different: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down how the “double haters” of the 2024 race differ from the 2016 and 2020 elections. Plus, we head to Virginia’s 5th District, where House Freedom Caucus chair Bob Good is facing a GOP primary challenger backed by Donald Trump and Kevin McCarthy.

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Meet the 'double-haters' of 2024 — and why they’re up for grabs

By Mark Murray

The so-called double haters — those who hold an unfavorable view of both major party presidential nominees — are a crucial group of swing voters, and for good reason.

In 2016, they broke for Donald Trump by nearly 20 points over Hillary Clinton, according to the NBC News exit poll. And in 2020, they swung for Joe Biden over Trump, according to the AP VoteCast. (The NBC News exit poll actually showed Trump winning the double haters in 2020, though they represented just 3% of all voters.)

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But NBC News’ merged polling of the 2024 race tells two important stories about these voters: One, they’re very different from the double haters of the 2016 and 2020 elections. Two, they’re completely up for grabs between Biden and Trump.

In 2016, NBC News’ combined polls found that double haters represented 18% of all voters surveyed that election cycle. They were disproportionately Republicans (43% identified as Republican, 28% as Democratic and 21% as independent). They were overwhelmingly conservatives and moderates. And they preferred