Why North Carolina is set to host the biggest governor's race of 2024

Even before Tuesday’s primary votes are tallied, North Carolina is gearing up to host the most pivotal — and most expensive — governor’s race in the country this fall.

Leading in the polls and in fundraising, two statewide elected officials, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, are expected to advance to the general election to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.

The stakes are high for North Carolina. With Republicans in solid control of the state Legislature, they have an opportunity to win a trifecta come November.

The stakes will also be high nationally. Of the 11 gubernatorial elections on the ballot this year, just two are occurring in presidential battleground states: North Carolina and New Hampshire.

But North Carolina’s is expected to receive the most attention from national party figures and groups. As the larger state of the two, campaigns are more expensive to run in North Carolina. And voters in New Hampshire cast ballots for governor every two years rather than four.

The prospective matchup between Stein and Robinson is poised to feature many of the same themes that will define the national 2024 campaign.

Republicans are prepared to tie Stein to President Joe Biden, whose approval ratings are deeply underwater in the state. Democrats are eager to paint Robinson as as an extremist on reproductive rights, education and LGBTQ issues, utilizing a lengthy paper trail of controversial public statements he’s made over many years.

This confluence of factors — in addition to the state’s significant number of split-ticket voters — is already scrambling the race. The state has voted for Republican candidates in 10 of the last 11 presidential elections, but over