Why Nikki Haley’s strategy still makes sense after Michigan and South Carolina

The Republican primary now heads to Super Tuesday with one clear theme: Donald Trump is the party’s first choice for the 2024 general election, even if a majority of Americans look with dismay at the possibility of a rematch between him and Joe Biden.

So why is Nikki Haley, fresh off two latest defeats in Michigan and her home state of South Carolina, still in the race?

The answer can be found in this quote from her on Monday, when she appeared in Grand Rapids a day ahead of the state primary: “The Democrats, I fully believe, are going to have a younger candidate going into the general election.”

That’s probably the clearest view of the Haley campaign strategy going forward: the idea that the primaries matter only so long as the frontrunners themselves remain physically (or financially) capable of remaining candidates for the presidency. And Nikki Haley is leaning on the conspiratorial strain of American political thinking that says neither Donald Trump or Joe Biden will be their respective parties’ nominees this fall.

Why Haley still sees a path to victory

Ms Haley is clearly banking on something knocking Donald Trump out of the presidential race, and doing so within the next few months. After South Carolina, it appears increasingly obvious that it won’t be the persistent criticism she has leveled at him for weeks at events across the country. His legal issues are the next most obvious threat, especially if he loses appeal on the civil judgements against him in New York. Those two trials ended in a combined $438m in judgements against him.

It’s still a gamble, and it may end up being a bad one if the RNC ends up keeping Mr Trump afloat through the end of the primary. But there is a window here for money problems to