Why Michigan will tell us a lot about the Republican primaries to come

CNN —

The Republican presidential primary season has been one long slog for the past month and half.

Just three states – Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – have had caucuses or primaries in which both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley were on the ballot. The small number of nominating contests allowed the candidates to camp out and provide individual attention to each state.

Tuesday’s Michigan primary marks a major pivot away from that model. Neither candidate has been able to pay too much attention to the Wolverine State, which makes it a good testing ground for how the GOP primary process will unfold as the campaign becomes nationalized over the next three weeks.

This is likely very good news for the former president.

Trump is the massive favorite in Michigan. Recent polling has been limited, but he led Haley 72% to 27% among likely GOP primary voters in a CNN/SSRS poll conducted at the end of last year. That lead was larger than his advantage in any of the final surveys leading up to the aforementioned three early nominating contests this primary season.

Now, Haley was able to close the gap with Trump in New Hampshire and South Carolina after polls had previously shown her well behind. Even three weeks out from the Palmetto State primary, polls had Haley down by 35 points, but she lost by 20 points after weeks of campaigning.

Related article CNN Poll: Trump narrowly leads Biden in general election rematch

Haley, though, doesn’t have the luxury of time in Michigan. The primary is here and now. Only in the past week did she announce a state leadership team and start airing television ads and holding campaign stops in the state.

If Trump’s Michigan