Why Kamala Harris Might Surprise Skeptical Voters

Vice President Kamala Harris is the clear front-runner to become the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, now that President Joe Biden has withdrawn from the race and endorsed her.

That’s true if nobody decides to challenge her. And it’s true if she draws serious competition.

No plausible alternative has her high profile, or access to Democratic strategists, operatives and fundraisers. Nobody else can say they’ve been in the room for key decisions in the last four years, or spent as much time on the world stage. Nobody else would have a running start on the presidential campaign trail, which is a big deal when the convention is four weeks away.

And if Democratic luminaries keep endorsing her, as both Bill and Hillary Clinton did shortly after Biden’s announcement, no other hypothetical contender would have comparable support from the party establishment.

But just how would Harris actually fare against Trump? That’s more difficult to say.

It’s easy to forget now, but Harris carried sky-high expectations into her 2020 presidential bid. She had risen quickly from Bay Area, California, politics to the U.S. Senate, where a series of celebrated committee interrogations of Trump administration officials — and future Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh— made her a star in the Democratic Party.

But Harris’ presidential campaign fizzled quickly, amid reports of poor management and a widespread sense among political professionals — and, apparently, voters — that she hadn’t really figured out what she wanted to do as president.

Her first years in office as vice president didn’t improve her reputation. She churned through staff and took direct responsibility for parts of immigration policy, at a time migration at the