Why is there nostalgia for the Trump economy in the battleground states?

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Voters and economists seem to have wildly different views of the US economy, a disconnect that’s hurting President Joe Biden in the key states that will decide the 2024 election.

There’s new polling from The Wall Street Journal that outlines the dichotomy and the challenge it represents for Biden in particular as memories of the Donald Trump years fade.

Perceptions vs. data

Swing state voters, according to the Journal, are more focused on the economy and inflation than those nationwide, and they also have a dimmer view of the state of the country.

Just one-quarter of registered voters in these seven key states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – say the economy has improved in the past two years. The economic data, on the other hand, suggests inflation is cooling and the US seems likely to avoid a recession that seemed likely a year ago. The soft landing happened without even spiking the unemployment rate, which was a real fear.

“A relatively strong economy” is how Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary, described it last month. For context, Summers was early to raise the alarm about the threat of inflation after the Covid-19 pandemic, and he hasloudly criticized the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve for most of Biden’s term.

The US economy vs. your state economy

The disconnect runs much deeper than a misalignment of voters’ perceptions and economic indicators. About half of these voters think their own economic situation is fine, and they might rate their individual states as positive. The national economy, however, gets